Food For Thought © copyrighted June 1998 Social Security Is Not Going Broke! - Part 2 |
by columnist David Lawrence Dewey "Reading provides knowledge... knowledge leads to answers." |
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Social Security Is Not Going Broke! It has a 100 billion dollar surplus. We don't have a 63 billion dollar surplus, but a 37 billion dollar deficit! Below are the facts ! - June, 1998 The social security figures below were collected from the Social Security website and the the General Accounting Office, Washington. Click here to email your Senators Click here to email your Congressmen Please email your friends about this column! |
Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, 1937-97
thousands/millions Data from the Social Security Adminstration and the General Accounting Office | |||||||||||||
Calendar Year |
Net Social Security Collected |
Interest Income |
Interest Income Yield |
Paymnts From Taxing Benefits |
Paymnts To/From General Fund |
Paid to Railroad Program Fund |
Adminstr. Expenses |
Benefits Paid |
Net Increase During Year |
Amount at end of year |
|||
1937 | $765 | $2 | 3.000% | --- | --- | --- | --- | $1 | $766 | $766 | |||
1938 | 360 | 15 | 3.000% | --- | --- | --- | --- | 10 | 366 | 1,132 | |||
1939 | 580 | 27 | 3.000% | --- | --- | --- | --- | 14 | 592 | 1,724 | |||
1940 | 325 | 43 | 2.500% | --- | --- | --- | 26 | 35 | 306 | 2,031 | |||
1941 | 789 | 56 | 2.450% | --- | --- | --- | 26 | 88 | 731 | 2,762 | |||
1942 | 1,012 | 72 | 2.220% | --- | --- | --- | 28 | 131 | 926 | 3,688 | |||
1943 | 1,239 | 88 | 1.910% | --- | --- | --- | 29 | 166 | 1,132 | 4,820 | |||
1944 | 1,316 | 107 | 1.875% | --- | --- | --- | 29 | 209 | 1,184 | 6,005 | |||
1945 | 1,285 | 134 | 1.875% | --- | --- | --- | 30 | 274 | 1,116 | 7,121 | |||
1946 | 1,295 | 152 | 1.920% | --- | --- | --- | 40 | 378 | 1,029 | 8,150 | |||
1947 | 1,557 | 164 | 2.030% | --- | 1 | --- | 46 | 466 | 1,210 | 9,360 | |||
1948 | 1,685 | 281 | 2.125% | --- | 3 | --- | 51 | 556 | 1,362 | 10,722 | |||
1949 | 1,666 | 146 | 2.125% | --- | 4 | --- | 54 | 667 | 1,094 | 11,816 | |||
1950 | 2,667 | 257 | 2.125% | --- | 4 | --- | 61 | 961 | 1,905 | 13,721 | |||
1951 | 3,363 | 417 | 2.180% | --- | 4 | --- | 81 | 1,885 | 1,818 | 15,540 | |||
1952 | 3,819 | 365 | 2.250% | --- | --- | --- | 88 | 2,194 | 1,902 | 17,442 | |||
1953 | 3,945 | 414 | 2.350% | --- | --- | --- | 88 | 3,006 | 1,265 | 18,707 | |||
1954 | 5,163 | 447 | 2.300% | --- | --- | -$21 | 92 | 3,670 | 1,869 | 20,576 | |||
1955 | 5,713 | 454 | 2.290% | --- | --- | -7 | 119 | 4,968 | 1,087 | 21,663 | |||
1956 | 6,172 | 526 | 2.460% | --- | --- | -5 | 132 | 5,715 | 856 | 22,519 | |||
1957 | 6,825 | 556 | 2.500% | --- | --- | -2 | 162 | 7,347 | -126 | 22,933 | |||
1958 | 7,566 | 552 | 2.560% | --- | --- | 124 | 194 | 8,327 | -528 | 21,864 | |||
1959 | 8,052 | 532 | 2.625% | --- | --- | 282 | 184 | 9,842 | -1,724 | 20,141 | |||
1960 | 10,866 | 516 | 2.830% | --- | --- | 318 | 203 | 10,677 | 184 | 20,324 | |||
1961 | 11,285 | 548 | 3.810% | --- | --- | 332 | 239 | 11,862 | -599 | 19,725 | |||
1962 | 12,059 | 526 | 3.850% | --- | --- | 361 | 256 | 13,356 | -1,388 | 18,337 | |||
1963 | 14,541 | 521 | 3.900% | --- | --- | 423 | 281 | 14,217 | 143 | 18,480 | |||
1964 | 15,689 | 569 | 4.130% | --- | --- | 403 | 296 | 14,914 | 645 | 19,125 | |||
1965 | 16,017 | 593 | 4.190% | --- | --- | 436 | 328 | 16,737 | -890 | 18,235 | |||
1966 | 20,580 | 644 | 4.940% | --- | 78 | 444 | 256 | 18,267 | 2,335 | 20,570 | |||
1967 | 23,138 | 818 | 4.950% | --- | 78 | 508 | 406 | 19,468 | 3,652 | 24,222 | |||
1968 | 23,719 | 939 | 5.480% | --- | 382 | 438 | 476 | 22,643 | 1,483 | 25,704 | |||
1969 | 27,947 | 1,165 | 6.590% | --- | 442 | 491 | 474 | 24,210 | 4,378 | 30,082 | |||
1970 | 30,256 | 1,515 | 7.260% | --- | 449 | 579 | 471 | 28,798 | 2,371 | 32,454 | |||
1971 | 33,723 | 1,667 | 6.060% | --- | 488 | 613 | 514 | 33,414 | 1,335 | 33,789 | |||
1972 | 37,781 | 1,794 | 5.920% | --- | 475 | 724 | 674 | 37,124 | 1,528 | 35,318 | |||
1973 | 45,975 | 1,928 | 6.640% | --- | 442 | 783 | 647 | 45,745 | 1,169 | 36,487 | |||
1974 | 52,081 | 2,159 | 7.480% | --- | 447 | 909 | 865 | 51,623 | 1,291 | 37,777 | |||
1975 | 56,816 | 2,364 | 7.390% | --- | 425 | 982 | 896 | 58,517 | -790 | 36,987 | |||
1976 | 63,362 | 2,301 | 7.140% | --- | 614 | 1,212 | 959 | 66,705 | -1,600 | 35,388 | |||
1977 | 69,572 | 2,227 | 7.080% | --- | 613 | 1,208 | 981 | 73,121 | -2,897 | 32,491 | |||
1978 | 75,471 | 2,008 | 8.110% | --- | 615 | 1,589 | 1,115 | 80,361 | -4,971 | 27,520 | |||
1979 | 87,919 | 1,797 | 9.120% | --- | 557 | 1,448 | 1,113 | 90,573 | -2,860 | 24,660 | |||
1980 | 103,456 | 1,845 | 11.000% | --- | 540 | 1,442 | 1,154 | 105,083 | -1,837 | 22,823 | |||
1981 | 122,627 | 2,060 | 13.333% | --- | 675 | 1,585 | 1,307 | 123,803 | -1,334 | 21,490 | |||
1982 | 123,673 | 845 | 12.781% | --- | 680 | 1,793 | 1,519 | 138,806 | 598 | - | |||
1982 | (a) See Below | 17,524 | 22,088 | ||||||||||
1983 | 138,337 | 6,706 | 11.031% | --- | 5,541 | 2,251 | 1,528 | 149,221 | -2,416 | 19,672 | |||
1984 | 164,122 | 2,266 | 12.396% | 2,835 | 105 | 2,404 | 1,638 | 157,841 | 7,445 | 27,117 | |||
1985 | 176,958 | 1,871 | 10.781% | 3,208 | 2,203 | 2,310 | 1,592 | 167,248 | 8,725 | - | |||
1985 | (b) See Below | -4,365 | 35,842 | ||||||||||
1986 | 190,741 | 3,069 | 7.990% | 3,424 | 160 | 2,585 | 1,601 | 176,813 | 3,239 | - | |||
1986 | (c) See Below | -13,156 | 39,081 | ||||||||||
1987 | 202,735 | 4,690 | 8.396% | 3,257 | 55 | 2,557 | 1,524 | 183,587 | 23,068 | 62,149 | |||
1988 | 229,775 | 7,568 | 8.823% | 3,384 | 43 | 2,790 | 1,776 | 195,454 | 40,750 | 102,899 | |||
1989 | 250,195 | 11,985 | 8.656% | 2,439 | 34 | 2,845 | 1,673 | 207,971 | 52,164 | 155,063 | |||
1990 | 267,530 | 16,363 | 8.625% | 4,848 | -2,089 | 2,969 | 1,563 | 222,987 | 59,134 | 214,197 | |||
1991 | 272,574 | 20,829 | 7.958% | 5,864 | 19 | 3,375 | 1,792 | 240,467 | 53,652 | 267,849 | |||
1992 | 280,992 | 24,303 | 7.083% | 5,852 | 14 | 3,148 | 1,830 | 254,883 | 51,301 | 319,150 | |||
1993 | 290,905 | 27,027 | 6.063% | 5,335 | 10 | 3,353 | 1,996 | 267,755 | 50,173 | 369,322 | |||
1994 | 293,323 | 29,946 | 7.052% | 4,995 | 7 | 3,420 | 1,645 | 279,068 | 44,138 | 413,460 | |||
1995 | 304,620 | 32,820 | 6.875% | 5,490 | -129 | 4,052 | 2,077 | 291,630 | 45,041 | 458,502 | |||
1996 | 321,557 | 35,706 | 6.594% | 6,471 | 7 | 3,554 | 1,802 | 302,861 | 55,524 | 514,026 | |||
1997 | 349,946 | 39,795 | 6.940% | 7,426 | 2 | 3,688 | 2,128 | 316,257 | 75,096 | 589,121 | |||
Totals | 4,880,022 | 302,100 | 5.460% | 64,828 | 13,997 | 64,693 | 43,155 | 4,563,977 | __ | 589,121 | |||
RECAP YEARS |
Social Security Collected |
Interest Income | Average Yield |
Taxed Benefits | (+)or(-) General Fund | Railroad Paymnts | Admin. Expenses | Benefits Paids | Percent (+) or (-) Benefits |
% Social Security Collected |
|||
95-97 | 976,123 | 108,321 | 6.800% | 19,387 | -120 | 11,294 | 6,007 | 910,748 | +19% | +14% | |||
90-94 | 1,405,324 | 118,468 | 7.360% | 26,894 | -2,039 | 16,265 | 8,826 | 1,265,160 | +35% | +33% | |||
85-89 | 1,050,404 | 29,183 | 8,930% | 15,712 | -15026 | 13,087 | 8,166 | 921,073 | +37% | +61% | |||
80-84 | 652,215 | 13,722 | 12.110% | 2,835 | 25,065 | 9.475 | 7,146 | 674,754 | +83% | +99% | |||
75-79 | 353,140 | 10,697 | 7.770% | 0 | 2,824 | 6,439 | 5,064 | 368,277 | +87% | +76% | |||
70-74 | 199,816 | 9,063 | 6.670% | 0 | 2,301 | 3,608 | 3,171 | 196,704 | +94% | +79% | |||
65-69 | 111,401 | 4,159 | 5.230% | 0 | 980 | 2,317 | 1,940 | 101,325 | +55% | +79% | |||
60-64 | 64,440 | 2,680 | 4.470% | 0 | 0 | 1,837 | 1,275 | 65,026 | +79% | +87% | |||
55-59 | 34,328 | 2,620 | 2.490% | 0 | 0 | 392 | 791 | 36,199 | +208% | +81% | |||
50-54 | 18,957 | 1,900 | 2.360% | 0 | 4 | -21 | 410 | 11,716 | +400% | +153% | |||
45-49 | 7,488 | 877 | 2.020% | 0 | 8 | 0 | 221 | 2,341 | +272% | +59% | |||
40-44 | 4,681 | 366 | 2.100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 629 | +1516 | +274% | |||
37-39 | 1,705 | 44 | 3.000% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |||
Note: (a) (b) (c) above: (a): Fund borrowed from General Fund, 1982, $17,524 ( million ) (b): Fund partial paid General Fund, 4,365 ( million ) for 1982 loan (c): Fund paid remaining 1982 loan, 13,156 ( million ) |
FINDINGS 1937 - 1997
Collected Social Securtity Taxes: 4 trillion, 880 billion dollars
Interest Earned In Trust Funds: 302 billion, 100 hundred million
Average Interest Yield for 60 years on funds: 5.460%
Payments received on taxed benefits - 1966-1997: 64 billion 828 million
Payments received or paid to the General Fund: 13 billion, 997 million dollars
Transferred to the Railroad Retirement Trusts: 64 billion, 693 million dollars
Adminstrative Expenses: 43 billion, 155 million
Benefits Paid: 4 trillion, 563 billion dollars
Trust Funds have been poorly managed.
If funds collected had earned an average rate of return of 7.00%
for the sixty years instead of the poor return of 5.460%.
( this could have been accomplished by investing in other securities, housing loans, stocks, etc.)
An additional 371 billion dollars would have been earned in interest income.
At these levels of earnings, this would have created an additional surplus of 100 billion per year, allowing for current collections and paying benefits with cost of living adjustments.
This would have brought the current amount in the funds to approximately:
1 trillion, 283 million dollars
in ten years.
Interest Income on 1 trillion 283 billion dollars at 7.00% would be approximately:
66 billion 333 million dollars annually
instead of the poorly managed 40 billion per year that has been seen in 1997.
This interest income would account for 20.98% of the current benefits
paid at 1997 benefits paid of 316 billion, 257 million dollars.
Adding additional earnings that could have been made, with the surplus,
would have brought the funds in another ten years to:
1 trillion, 961 billion dollars in surplus.
Interest income on this surplus amount at 7.00% would amount to 137 billion, 280 million annually, or 43% of the benefits paid instead of present earnings of only 12.72% of benefits paid.
The interest earnings projected above at 7.00% is a low conversative amount of return. This return would have been much higher if the funds had been invested in a much diversified investment portfolio. A return of only 5.460% for sixty years is what the trust funds have actually earned which by any definition is not represented of the higher returns that have been seen in investment markets, the Dow, or other investment areas the last 60 years.
Write your Senators and Congressmen today to take the social security funds out of the General Fund, and that the funds need to be managed and invested more wisely
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