Food For Thought
© copyrighted

June 1998
Social Security Is Not Going Broke! - Part 2
by columnist
David Lawrence Dewey

"Reading provides knowledge...
knowledge leads to answers."
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Make Sure You Read My Updated Column Jan.05, 2005:
The Real Facts Concerning Social Security
and What You're Not Being Told

Social Security Is Not Going Broke!
It has a 100 billion dollar surplus.
We don't have a 63 billion dollar surplus,
but a 37 billion dollar deficit!
Below are the facts ! - June, 1998

The social security figures below were collected from the Social Security website and the the General Accounting Office, Washington.

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Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, 1937-97
thousands/millions
Data from the Social Security Adminstration and the General Accounting Office
               
Calendar
Year
Net
Social Security
Collected
Interest
Income
Interest
Income
Yield
Paymnts
From
Taxing
Benefits
Paymnts To/From
General Fund
Paid to
Railroad
Program Fund
Adminstr.
Expenses
Benefits
Paid
Net Increase
During Year
Amount at
end of year
1937 $765 $2 3.000% --- --- --- --- $1 $766 $766
1938 360 15 3.000% --- --- --- --- 10 366 1,132
1939 580 27 3.000% --- --- --- --- 14 592 1,724
1940 325 43 2.500% --- --- --- 26 35 306 2,031
1941 789 56 2.450% --- --- --- 26 88 731 2,762
1942 1,012 72 2.220% --- --- --- 28 131 926 3,688
1943 1,239 88 1.910% --- --- --- 29 166 1,132 4,820
1944 1,316 107 1.875% --- --- --- 29 209 1,184 6,005
1945 1,285 134 1.875% --- --- --- 30 274 1,116 7,121
1946 1,295 152 1.920% --- --- --- 40 378 1,029 8,150
1947 1,557 164 2.030% --- 1 --- 46 466 1,210 9,360
1948 1,685 281 2.125% --- 3 --- 51 556 1,362 10,722
1949 1,666 146 2.125% --- 4 --- 54 667 1,094 11,816
1950 2,667 257 2.125% --- 4 --- 61 961 1,905 13,721
1951 3,363 417 2.180% --- 4 --- 81 1,885 1,818 15,540
1952 3,819 365 2.250% --- --- --- 88 2,194 1,902 17,442
1953 3,945 414 2.350% --- --- --- 88 3,006 1,265 18,707
1954 5,163 447 2.300% --- --- -$21 92 3,670 1,869 20,576
1955 5,713 454 2.290% --- --- -7 119 4,968 1,087 21,663
1956 6,172 526 2.460% --- --- -5 132 5,715 856 22,519
1957 6,825 556 2.500% --- --- -2 162 7,347 -126 22,933
1958 7,566 552 2.560% --- --- 124 194 8,327 -528 21,864
1959 8,052 532 2.625% --- --- 282 184 9,842 -1,724 20,141
1960 10,866 516 2.830% --- --- 318 203 10,677 184 20,324
1961 11,285 548 3.810% --- --- 332 239 11,862 -599 19,725
1962 12,059 526 3.850% --- --- 361 256 13,356 -1,388 18,337
1963 14,541 521 3.900% --- --- 423 281 14,217 143 18,480
1964 15,689 569 4.130% --- --- 403 296 14,914 645 19,125
1965 16,017 593 4.190% --- --- 436 328 16,737 -890 18,235
1966 20,580 644 4.940% --- 78 444 256 18,267 2,335 20,570
1967 23,138 818 4.950% --- 78 508 406 19,468 3,652 24,222
1968 23,719 939 5.480% --- 382 438 476 22,643 1,483 25,704
1969 27,947 1,165 6.590% --- 442 491 474 24,210 4,378 30,082
1970 30,256 1,515 7.260% --- 449 579 471 28,798 2,371 32,454
1971 33,723 1,667 6.060% --- 488 613 514 33,414 1,335 33,789
1972 37,781 1,794 5.920% --- 475 724 674 37,124 1,528 35,318
1973 45,975 1,928 6.640% --- 442 783 647 45,745 1,169 36,487
1974 52,081 2,159 7.480% --- 447 909 865 51,623 1,291 37,777
1975 56,816 2,364 7.390% --- 425 982 896 58,517 -790 36,987
1976 63,362 2,301 7.140% --- 614 1,212 959 66,705 -1,600 35,388
1977 69,572 2,227 7.080% --- 613 1,208 981 73,121 -2,897 32,491
1978 75,471 2,008 8.110% --- 615 1,589 1,115 80,361 -4,971 27,520
1979 87,919 1,797 9.120% --- 557 1,448 1,113 90,573 -2,860 24,660
1980 103,456 1,845 11.000% --- 540 1,442 1,154 105,083 -1,837 22,823
1981 122,627 2,060 13.333% --- 675 1,585 1,307 123,803 -1,334 21,490
1982 123,673 845 12.781% --- 680 1,793 1,519 138,806 598 -
1982 (a) See Below 17,524 22,088
1983 138,337 6,706 11.031% --- 5,541 2,251 1,528 149,221 -2,416 19,672
1984 164,122 2,266 12.396% 2,835 105 2,404 1,638 157,841 7,445 27,117
1985 176,958 1,871 10.781% 3,208 2,203 2,310 1,592 167,248 8,725 -
1985 (b) See Below -4,365 35,842
1986 190,741 3,069 7.990% 3,424 160 2,585 1,601 176,813 3,239 -
1986 (c) See Below -13,156 39,081
1987 202,735 4,690 8.396% 3,257 55 2,557 1,524 183,587 23,068 62,149
1988 229,775 7,568 8.823% 3,384 43 2,790 1,776 195,454 40,750 102,899
1989 250,195 11,985 8.656% 2,439 34 2,845 1,673 207,971 52,164 155,063
1990 267,530 16,363 8.625% 4,848 -2,089 2,969 1,563 222,987 59,134 214,197
1991 272,574 20,829 7.958% 5,864 19 3,375 1,792 240,467 53,652 267,849
1992 280,992 24,303 7.083% 5,852 14 3,148 1,830 254,883 51,301 319,150
1993 290,905 27,027 6.063% 5,335 10 3,353 1,996 267,755 50,173 369,322
1994 293,323 29,946 7.052% 4,995 7 3,420 1,645 279,068 44,138 413,460
1995 304,620 32,820 6.875% 5,490 -129 4,052 2,077 291,630 45,041 458,502
1996 321,557 35,706 6.594% 6,471 7 3,554 1,802 302,861 55,524 514,026
1997 349,946 39,795 6.940% 7,426 2 3,688 2,128 316,257 75,096 589,121
Totals 4,880,022 302,100 5.460% 64,828 13,997 64,693 43,155 4,563,977 __ 589,121
RECAP
YEARS
Social Security
Collected
Interest Income Average
Yield
Taxed Benefits (+)or(-) General Fund Railroad Paymnts Admin. Expenses Benefits Paids Percent
(+) or (-)
Benefits
% Social Security
Collected
95-97 976,123 108,321 6.800% 19,387 -120 11,294 6,007 910,748 +19% +14%
90-94 1,405,324 118,468 7.360% 26,894 -2,039 16,265 8,826 1,265,160 +35% +33%
85-89 1,050,404 29,183 8,930% 15,712 -15026 13,087 8,166 921,073 +37% +61%
80-84 652,215 13,722 12.110% 2,835 25,065 9.475 7,146 674,754 +83% +99%
75-79 353,140 10,697 7.770% 0 2,824 6,439 5,064 368,277 +87% +76%
70-74 199,816 9,063 6.670% 0 2,301 3,608 3,171 196,704 +94% +79%
65-69 111,401 4,159 5.230% 0 980 2,317 1,940 101,325 +55% +79%
60-64 64,440 2,680 4.470% 0 0 1,837 1,275 65,026 +79% +87%
55-59 34,328 2,620 2.490% 0 0 392 791 36,199 +208% +81%
50-54 18,957 1,900 2.360% 0 4 -21 410 11,716 +400% +153%
45-49 7,488 877 2.020% 0 8 0 221 2,341 +272% +59%
40-44 4,681 366 2.100% 0 0 0 138 629 +1516 +274%
37-39 1,705 44 3.000% 0 0 0 0 25- -

Note: (a) (b) (c) above:
(a): Fund borrowed from General Fund, 1982, $17,524 ( million )
(b): Fund partial paid General Fund, 4,365 ( million ) for 1982 loan
(c): Fund paid remaining 1982 loan, 13,156 ( million )

FINDINGS 1937 - 1997

Collected Social Securtity Taxes: 4 trillion, 880 billion dollars

Interest Earned In Trust Funds: 302 billion, 100 hundred million

Average Interest Yield for 60 years on funds: 5.460%

Payments received on taxed benefits - 1966-1997: 64 billion 828 million

Payments received or paid to the General Fund: 13 billion, 997 million dollars

Transferred to the Railroad Retirement Trusts: 64 billion, 693 million dollars

Adminstrative Expenses: 43 billion, 155 million

Benefits Paid: 4 trillion, 563 billion dollars

Trust Funds have been poorly managed.

If funds collected had earned an average rate of return of 7.00%
for the sixty years instead of the poor return of 5.460%.

( this could have been accomplished by investing in other securities, housing loans, stocks, etc.)

An additional 371 billion dollars would have been earned in interest income.

At these levels of earnings, this would have created an additional surplus of 100 billion per year, allowing for current collections and paying benefits with cost of living adjustments.

This would have brought the current amount in the funds to approximately:
1 trillion, 283 million dollars in ten years.

Interest Income on 1 trillion 283 billion dollars at 7.00% would be approximately:
66 billion 333 million dollars annually
instead of the poorly managed 40 billion per year that has been seen in 1997.

This interest income would account for 20.98% of the current benefits
paid at 1997 benefits paid of 316 billion, 257 million dollars.

Adding additional earnings that could have been made, with the surplus,
would have brought the funds in another ten years to:
1 trillion, 961 billion dollars in surplus.

Interest income on this surplus amount at 7.00% would amount to 137 billion, 280 million annually, or 43% of the benefits paid instead of present earnings of only 12.72% of benefits paid.

The interest earnings projected above at 7.00% is a low conversative amount of return. This return would have been much higher if the funds had been invested in a much diversified investment portfolio. A return of only 5.460% for sixty years is what the trust funds have actually earned which by any definition is not represented of the higher returns that have been seen in investment markets, the Dow, or other investment areas the last 60 years.

Write your Senators and Congressmen today to take the social security funds out of the General Fund, and that the funds need to be managed and invested more wisely

RETURN TO PART 1


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DL DEWEY
Updated January 1st, 2005
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